Posted December 3rd, 2004 @ 12:14am by Erik J. Barzeski
Okay, I have two things to say about tonight's Survivor.
One: Ding dong, the witch is dead, the witch is dead, the witch is dead.
Two: If Chris were smart, he'd immediately drop the baggage that is Twila and Scout and form an alliance to go to the final three with Eliza and Julie.
But as I sit here and think about the second thing, I find myself doing a little "electoral math" of my own. It gets long so it goes in the extended entry portion…
Chris could go to the final three with either of these pairs: Julie/Eliza, Scout/Twila. Let's do the math on the juries and their likely votes:
Chris vs. (Eliza|Julie)
Chris Girl Undecided 2 3 2
Chris gets Sarge and Chad. The girl would get Ami, LeAnn, and (Eliza|Julie). Scout and Twila would be toss-ups here: they harbor a lot of hate towards the other girls, but if Chris switches his alliance he'd be in hot water with them.
Chris vs. (Scout|Twila)
Chris Girl Undecided 4 1 2
Chris gets Sarge, Chad, Ami, and Eliza. The girl would get (Scout|Twila). LeAnn may be a toss-up leaning towards Chris (remember she's not as much of a man-hater as Ami) and Julie, who has been helping Chris but would have been voted out by him recently too.
In other words, after doing the math, it looks smarter for Chris to stay with his alliance with Scout and Twila. It's the only one he's really had, he doesn't come off as a jerk, and he has a good chance to win against either in the final two (and a good chance to win the final challenge against them, too - though I'm not forgetting Twila holding on with her teeth to win earlier).
Survivor jury members - with the exception of the year Vecepia won - have consistently voted for the person who "plays the game," but I think Twila has bugged enough people that she wouldn't be excused for swearing on her son's life in the final two. I think that against Twila or Scout, Chris would pull out a comfortable win. Not necessary 6-1 or even 5-2, but he would probably get four votes comfortably. He's worked, he's been honest, and he really hasn't flipped around and hurt many people's feelings. Sarge wouldn't find out that he voted for him until afterwards, and even then it doesn't matter too much: Sarge was gone anyway.
This could be interesting. I'm just glad Ami is gone.